The aim of this second part of the project is to consider how diversifying land use and management of each archetype beyond agricultural production could deliver a range of benefits important for climate resilience and the wider environment, in addition to reducing emissions.

The transitions focused on changes in land use and management measures consistent with our Seventh Carbon Budget advice, such as woodland creation, energy crop planting and peat restoration. For some archetypes, we also included the installation of solar photovoltaics, which can generate an income for the farmer, although the emissions savings are captured elsewhere in the economy. The project did not consider the take-up of low-carbon farming practices to reduce emissions from managing soils and livestock.

Results for the transition are provided for 2035 and 2050, allowing comparison against the 2022 baseline.

This report reflects the views of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Eunomia, and the University of East Anglia and does not represent the views of the CCC, and nor has it been endorsed by the CCC.

Key messages:

• The 16 transitions (four archetypes underwent two types of transition) delivered 45-53% of the net emissions reduction by 2050 estimated under the Balanced Pathway in the Seventh Carbon Budget advice, with reductions of between 0.2 and 7 MtCO₂e by 2050 depending on archetype, with five transitions moving from a net source to a net sink.
• For all transitions, the farming income related to agricultural production decreases due to the fall in agricultural activity, but this was more than offset by the combined increase in income from non-farming activities (for example, energy crops and renewables, such as solar photovoltaics) and non-market improvements to the environment. After allowing for costs, the uplift in total net benefits (private and social) compared to the baseline by 2050 typically ranged from £500 to £1,500/hectare.
• The above results assume no projected change in climate. The project made a limited qualitative assessment of the impact of climate change, which indicated that the greater risks to agricultural production and carbon sequestration arise from short-lived climatic extremes (e.g. floods, droughts).

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This report presents a detailed methodology developed for the NZCM, including the identification of low-carbon actions assumed in CCC pathways, the longlisting process of co-impacts from climate action across the buildings, transport and agriculture & land use sectors, and the impact pathways, valuation methodology and sensitivity analysis used for the shortlisted co-impacts.

This model has since been updated for use in the CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget advice report, as outlined in the Seventh Carbon Budget methodology report.

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